Wednesday, October 18, 2017

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AFTER 3-DAY SPRINT; 10100 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AFTER 3-DAY SPRINT; 10100 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively while Nadaq ended flat with Dow breaking above 23000 for the first time on intraday basis.

UnitedHealth reported a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecas. Johnson & Johnson also reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Goldman Sachs' earnings and revenue beat Wall Street expectation; the stock however fell 2.6%.  Netflix posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue, but stock fell 1.6%.

European markets, except a 0.4% higher Spain, fell upto 0.4%.

AT HOME

It was a day of consolidation as benchmark indices ended little changed after trading in a narrow range through the session. Sensex lost 24 points to settle at 32609 while Nifty finished at 10234, up 4 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however outperformed, rising 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Telecom index soared 2.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.7% higher Oil & Gas index.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 484 cr and 8 cr but net bought index futures worth Rs 258 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 809 cr.

Rupee depreciated 31 paise to end at 65.03/$.

Axis Bank reported a 35.5% rise in net profit backed by lower provisions towards the bad loans (dip by 13%), fee income growth (12% rise) and stable loan growth (16%). However, the gross NPAs, including the divergences, jumped 67% to Rs 27,402 crore from Rs 16,379 crore and net NPAs nearly doubled to Rs 14,052 crore from Rs 7761 crore a year ago. Non-watchlist slippages surged to Rs 6505 cr, up from 2722 cr q-o-q.

Wipro's consolidated net profit increased 5.5% sequentially to Rs 2,191.7 crore, driven by fall in total expenses, lower finance cost and higher other income. Consolidated evenue from operations fell 1.4% to Rs 13,468.7 cr. IT services business grew by 1.1%. IT services revenues in dollar terms grew by 2.1% to USD 2,013.5 million and constant currency growth was at 0.3%. For Q3FY18, Wipro expects revenues from IT services business to be in the range of USD 2,014-2,054 million, a growth of 0-2% over Q2. Revenues largely matched expectations but constant currency growth and Q3 guidance missed estimate.

Bajaj Auto reported better-than-expected numbers. Net profit fell 0.6% y-o-y dip to Rs 1194 cr, hit by slow sales growth, lower other income and higher raw material cost. Revenue rose 2% to Rs 6566 cr. Operating profit was up 0.2% at Rs 1297 cr but margin contracted by 170 bps to 19.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

After rising more than 250 points in 3 sessions, Nifty consolidated yesterday by closing 4 points higher after trading in a narrow range and is set to open lower today.

10100 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to. 10310 is the immediate target above which 10600-10650 would be the next major target to eye.


Ultratech will report its quarterly earnings today.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

NIFTY TAKES OUT 10200 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10100 FOR TARGET OF 10600

NIFTY TAKES OUT 10200 HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10100 FOR TARGET OF 10600

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.2%-0.4% to hit fresh record highs.

Telecommunications and financials lead advancers. Healthcare stocks slipped on Trump's comment that Trump prescription drug prices are "out of control.

Netflix reported earnings and revenues that beat expectations.

Commodities gained on the back of better-than-expected China producer prices. Copper cracked the $7,000 per ton level, reaching heights not seen since 2014.

Oil rose on reports that Iraqi forces had captured parts of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city controlled by Kurdish forces. Brent surged 1.1% to $57.82 and U.S. crude settled up 0.8% at $51.87.

European markets are trading mixed with modest changes. Spain fell 0.8% as political uncertainty drags on. Balance of trade data for the euro area showed a surplus of 16.1 billion euros in August from 17.5 billion last year.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices climbed six tenth of a percent, extending the winning streak to third straight day and hitting record intraday as well as closing highs. Sensex added 201 points to settle at 32664 while Nifty finished at 10231, up 63 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Except 0.13% and 0.01% lower Power and Finance indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Telecom and Metal indices leading the tally, up 4.2% and 2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futrues worth Rs 30 cr and 175 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 2486 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 273 cr.

Rupee appreciated 25 paise to end at 64.68/$.

India's wholesale inflation moderated to 2.60% in September from 3.24% in August.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a modestly lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

Nifty yesterday soared 63 point to end at 10231, taking out the resistance presented by the trendline adjoining tops made in August and September. Next major target comes to around 10600.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10100, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.


Axis Bank, ACC, Bajaj Auto and Wipro will report their quarterly earnings today.

Monday, October 16, 2017

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10180 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10045

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10180 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 10045

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained 0.1%-0.2% to hit fresh record highs on Friday.

The consumer price index rose 0.6% last month, below the expected gain of 0.7%. Retail sales rose 1.6%, the expected increase being 1.7%.

Treasury yields fell on the data, with the benchmark 10-year yield at 2.28%. Dollar initially slid but later recouped losses.

Bank of America jumped 1.5% on better-than-expected earnings.

Earlier, data showed China September exports rose 8.1%—in dollar terms—compared to a year ago, while imports rose 18.7%.

Oil prices surged on the back of robust China import data and after news that President Donald Trump had not reimposed sanctions on Iran. Brent crude rose 1.6% to settle at $57.17 a barrel and WTI advanced 1.7% to settle at $51.45.

European markets ended mixed with modest changes.

For the week, US indices gained 0.2%-0.4%. In Europe, FTSE and DAX gained 0.2% and 0.3% respectively but CAC fell 0.2%. In Asia, Nikkei soared 2.2% while Shanghai and Hang Seng gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

In a speech on Sunday, Fed Chair Yellen indicated that inflation was likely to improve despite the unexpectedly low levels seen this year.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty climbed 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, with Nifty closing at record high while Sensex closed at the highest level since 1st August. Sensex soared 250 points to settle at 32432 while Nifty added 71 points to finish at 10167.  BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices underperformed, gaining just 0.04% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Telecom index soared 5.3%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.3% higher Bankex. Healthcare and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 1699 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 808 cr and 363 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1590 cr.

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to end at 64.92/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.9% each, extending the rising streak to second consecutive week.

Reliance Industries reported mixed set of earnings with Revenue and margin beating estimates while GRMs, though hit 9-year high at $12 per barrel, were below estimates. Jio numbers were good with the business reporting positive EBIDTA and average revenue per user of Rs 156.

India's trade deficit narrowed to a 7-month low of $8.98 bn in September as export rose at 25.6%, the highest pace in 6-months to USD 28.61 bn and imports rose 18%.

OUTLOOK

China's September CPI is up 1.6%, meeting expectation.

Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 35 points higher start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty took out 34-DMA hurdle of 9930, we have been recommending holding on to long positions with a trailing stop-loss. We had given targets of 10015 and 10180.

Nifty on Friday touched a high of 10192 before closing at 10167, achieving the 10180 target and vindicating our view.

A rising trendline adjoining tops made in August and September presents a resistance around 10200, a decisive crossover of which will mark a fresh breakout and next major target of 10600 would come into picture.

Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 10045, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.


India's WPI for September would be released today and is expected to show a reading of 3.3%.

Friday, October 13, 2017

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10100 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9955

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10100 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9955

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.1%-0.2% after major U.S. financials reported quarterly results.

JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations. Fixed income trading revenue however, fell 27% y-o-y. Citigroup also posted better-than-expected quarterly results but concerns about rising credit costs drove the stock lower by more than 3%.

U.S. producer prices increased 0.4% on month and 2.6% y-o-y in September. Weekly jobless claims totaled 243,000, hitting a more than one-month low.

Treasury yields slipped with the two-year yield at 1.517% and the benchmark 10-year yield around 2.327%.

Brent crude fell 1.2% to settle at $56.25 a barrel and WTI lost 1.4% to settle at $50.6 after the International Energy Agency said that global stock builds, rising non-OPEC production and sluggish growth in demand could weigh on the oil price.

European markets ended mixed with modest changes. The pound initially slid on news of an impasse in Brexit negotiations, but later rose on a report that the U.K. could remain in the European Union for two more years. Data from France showed consumer prices were up 1.1% on the year in September, but 0.2% lower from the previous month.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices soared more than a percent to close at the highest level since 21st September, 2017. Sensex added 348 points to settle at 32182 while Nifty finished at 10096, up 112 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 1.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Energy index leading the tally, up 2%, followed by 1.9% higher Telecom and Metal indices.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 668 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 263 cr and 742 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 873 cr.

Rupee appreciated 5 paise to end at 65.09/$.

Indusind Bank reported 25% y-o-y growth in September quarter net profit at Rs 880 cr. NII jumped 24.7% to Rs 1821 cr. Gross NPA ratio improved to 1.08% from 1.09% sequentially while Net NPA ratio remained unchanged at 0.44%.

Retail inflation, measured by CPI, remained flat at 3.28% in September, as food prices remained steady, while fuel and housing prices witnessing modest growth during the month.

India’s industrial output grew sharply 4.3% in August, highest in nine months. The figure for July was revised lower to 0.9% from 1.2%.

TCS met expectations on dollar revenue front while margins were better-than-estimates. Net profit rose 2.1% q-o-q to Rs 6446 cr while revenue rose 3.2% to Rs 30541 cr. Dollar revenue rose 3.2% and constant currency growth stood at 1.7%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.3% but Hang Seng and Shanghai are in the red. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points lower start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had reiterated the view that 9920 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.

Nifty yesterday soared 112 soared to end at 10096, achieving the 10100 target we had given after 10015 target was achieved.

10180, the top made in September, is now the next major target as well as the hurdle to eye. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9955, with the stop-loss of which, existing longs should be held on to.


Reliance Industries will report its quarterly earnings today.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

9920 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; TCS, INDUSIND EARNINGS IN FOCUS

9920 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT; TCS, INDUSIND EARNINGS IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices gained about 0.2% after digesting Fed minutes which showed it believes the economy is strong enough to withstand another rate hike in December.

Minutes showed that one more interest rate increase this year was "likely to be warranted" given that the economic outlook remained "unchanged" in the medium term, a summary showed. Policymakers, however, remained concerned about inflation.

Dollar index fell.

Oil extended the upmove to third consecutive day with Brent up 0.6% to $56.94 a barrel and WTI up 0.8% at $51.30.

Main European markets ended mixed with modest changes. Italy and Spain rose 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. Spanish government asked for greater clarity from Catalan authorities over whether or not the region had declared independence.

AT HOME

After gaining about half a percent in first hour or so, benchmark indices plunged sharply in the late noon trade to end with cuts of about three tenth of a percent, breaking three-day winning streak. Sensex settled at 31834, down 90 points while Nifty lost 32 points to finish at 9985. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. BSE Realty and Metal indices fell 2% and 1.4% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while Telecom and Oil & Gas indices were the top gainers, up 2.8% and 1.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 108 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 768 cr and 486 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 234 cr.

Rupee gained 15 paise to end at 65.14/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 25 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty took out 34-DMA hurdle of 9930, we had given target of 10015, the 67% retracement level of the 10180-9687 fall. Once that was achieved, we had said that 10100 is the next target to eye and stop-loss in the long positions should be raise to 9920.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 10067, slipped sharply to touch a low of 9955 and finally closed at 9985.

9920 continues to be immediate support to eye, a breach of which will confirm a sell on the hourly chart and would pave the way for further correction. 9814, the 67% retracement level of the recent 9687-10067 upmove, would be the next downside target if that happens.

On the way up, 10067, the top made yesterday, is the immediate hurdle above which 10180, the top made in September, would be the next major resistance to eye.

TCS and Indusind Bank will report their quarterly earnings today.


IIP for August is expected to show a growth of 2.5%, up from 1.2% in July. September CPI is expected to inch up to 3.56% from 3.36% in August.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

10100 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9920

10100 IS THE NEXT TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9920

WORLD MARKETS                             

US equities gained 0.1%-0.3% with the Dow hitting record intraday and closing high while S & P 500 and Nasdaq notched a record intraday high.

Wal-Mart announced a $20 billion buyback and reiterated its earnings outlook for the current fiscal year. Honeywell announced it plans to spin off its Home Products and Transportation Systems businesses into two separate companies. Pfizer, another Dow said it was thinking about selling or spinning off its consumer health-care business.

US crude rose 2.7% to $50.92 a barrel and Brent gained 1.3% to $56.52 after Saudi Arabia announced it would cut its oil exports in November by 560,000 barrels a day

European markets, except a 0.4% higher FTSE, lost upto 0.9% with Spain and Italy leading the losses on the back of ongoing political uncertainty in Spain.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices gained about a fourth of a percent, extending the winning streak to third straight day. Sensex added 78 points to settle at 31924 while Nifty finished at 10017, up 28 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices climbed 0.6% and 1% respectively. Except a 1% and 0.2% lower Realty and FMCG indices, all the BSE sectoral indices ended in green with Utilities and Energy indices leading the tally, up 1% and 0.9% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 505 cr and 391 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 436 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 402 cr.

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to end at 65.29/$.

IMF lowered India's growth projection for FY18 by half a percent to 6.7%, attributing it to demonetisation and introduction of the GST.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points higher start for our market.

After 34-DMA hurdle of 9930 was taken out, we had said that 10015, the two-third retracement level of the 10180-9685 fall, is the next target as well as the hurdle to eye, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Yesterday, Nifty rose 28 points to end at 10017, taking out this hurdle decisively.

10100 is the next upside target to eye above which 10180 would be the major resistance to eye.


Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 9920, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10015 TARGET; 9900 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

NIFTY ACHIEVES 10015 TARGET; 9900 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.1%-0.2%, pausing for breath ahead of earnings season. Nasdaq snapped a nine-day winning streak.

European markets, except a 0.2% lower FTSE, gained 0.1%-0.5%. DAX hit a new all-time high after data showed German industrial output rose more than expected in August.

WTI crude rose 29 cents to $49.58 a barrel and Brent rose 22 cents to $55.84 after OPEC signaled possible extension to output cut.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended marginally in the green after trading in a narrow range through the session. Sensex settled at 31847, up 33 points while Nifty added 9 points to finish at 9989. BSE mid-cap index ended marginally in the red while small-cap index climbed 0.6%. BSE Realty index soared 2.2%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.9% higher Consumer Durable index. Oil & Gas and Utilities indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.7% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 475 cr, 30 cr and 219 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 55 cr.

Rupee 65.35/$, appreciating 3 paise compared to previous close.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

After Nifty took out 34-DMA hurdle placed at 9930, we had said that 10015, the two-third retracement level of the 10180-9687 fall, is the next target as well as the hurdle to eye.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 10015 before closing at 9988, achieving this target and vindicating our view.

10015 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove. 10140, followed by 10180 would be next upside targets if that happens.


Meanwhile, immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9900, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs should be held on to.