Friday, June 23, 2017

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 9710 HURDLE; 9560 IMPORTANT SUPPORT

NIFTY RETREATS FROM 9710 HURDLE; 9560 IMPORTANT SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally in the red while Nasdaq was a tad higher as healthcare stocks gained while financials fell.

Healthcare stocks have been rising as Senate is set to consider health care bill next week which seeks to repeal and replace obamacare. The bill would continue to offer reimbursements to health insurance companies for subsidies for at least two years. It would also do away with current Obamacare taxes and would phase out Medicaid's expansion program.

Crude rebounded from a 10-month low with Brent up 40 cents at $45.22 a barrel and US crude up 21 cents at $42.74.

In Europe, FTSE lost 0.1% while DAX and CAC gained 0.2% each. Italy fell 0.7%.

AT HOME

After gaining two-third of a percent in the morning session, benchmark indices nosedived in noon trade to end flat. Sensex settled at 31291, up 7 points while Nifty lost 4 points to finish at 9630. Broader market underperformed, with BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices falling 0.6% each. BSE Oil & Gas and Realty indices tumbled 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, becoming top losers among sectoral indices while Bankex and Finance indices were the top gainers, up 0.2% each.

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 193 cr and 89 cr but net sold stock futures worth Rs 101 cr. DIIs were net sellers to tune of Rs 455 cr.

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 64.59/$.

Indian IT services industry body National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) today said it expects software export growth to slow to 7-8% in the current financial year from 8.6% a year earlier.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that we have been saying that 9710, the top made on 6th June, is the important hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a high of 9699, plunged sharply to end at 9630.

9560, the bottom made last week, which now roughly coincides with 34-DMA, is the important support, a breach of which will also confirm a lower-top lower-bottom on the daily chart and would pave the way for further correction.

Traders are advised to wait for the breach of 9710-9560 range on either side for taking a fresh view.


Two-day EU Summit begins today with focus on two objectives: strengthening the EU and protecting its citizens. Therefore key topics set to arise include terrorism, security, globalization and climate change. British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to make an appearance at the summit, where she is likely to inform other leaders of the U.K.'s intentions when it comes to exiting the political-economic bloc.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM 9610 SUPPORT

NIFTY REBOUNDS FROM 9610 SUPPORT

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.3% and 0.1% respectively while Nasdaq gained 0.7% as healthcare stocks gained but energy stocks fell.

Oil extended the fall despite the Energy Information Administration announcing that U.S. crude inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. WTI crude tumbled 2.3% to settle at $42.53 a barrel, it's lowest since August.

Mortgage applications rose 0.6% as interest rates remained low. Existing homes sales unexpectedly rose in May to the third highest monthly level in a decade, up 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.62 million units.

European markets, except a 1.3% higher Italy, lost 0.3%-0.4%.

AT HOME

After falling about half a percent, benchmark indices recouped most of the losses to end just modestly lower. Sensex settled at 31284, down 14 points while Nifty lost 20 points to finish at 9634. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.04% and 0.1% respectively. BSE Metal index tumbled 1.2%, becoming top loser among the sectoral indices, followed by 0.7% cut in Auto index. FMCG and Realty indices were the top gainers, up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 153 cr, 91 cr and 1100 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 41 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 64.52/$.

SEBI yesterday said that it would ease the takeover process for banks under the recently-introduced bankruptcy code from its strict share pricing rules, adding that such transactions will be governed only by RBI regulations. SEBI also tightened norms on P-notes and said it would levy fees on investments via P-notes.

Minutes from the RBI's latest policy meeting showed that the monetary policy committee welcomed data showing inflation easing below its target, but wanted more assurance the trend would continue before deciding whether to lower interest rates.

Karnataka government yesterday became the fourth state to waive off farmer loans. The state's Chief Minister Siddaramaiah tweeted that the government will waive off loans of up to Rs 50,000 given to farmers until June 20 by co-operative banks.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading flat to modestly higher and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

In yesterday's report we had mentioned that 9610 is the immediate support on the hourly chart below which 9560, the bottom made last week, would be the important support to eye. 

Nifty, after touching a low of 9609, rebounded to close at 9634 and is set to open higher today.

9610 continues to be immediate support below that, as mentioned above, 9560 would be the important support to eye.


9710, the top made on 6th June, continues to be immediate hurdle, above which 9850 would be the next target.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

9710-9560 IS THE IMMEDIATE RANGE

9710-9560 IS THE IMMEDIATE RANGE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.3%-0.8% as falling oil pressured energy stocks.

WTI crude tumbled 2.2% to $43.23 a barrel following news of an increase in production from Libya and Nigeria, completing 20% fall from its 52-week high .

House Speaker Paul Ryan, talKing on tax reforms, said the government is cutting back on regulatory red tape and that changes to the tax code must be permanent.

Boston Fed President said the current low-rate environment was likely to remain for some time, adding that low rates handicap the central bank's ability to "offset negative shocks."

Treasury yields traded lower, with the benchmark 10-year yield slipping to 2.15% and the two-year yield near 1.35%.

European markets lost 0.3%-1%. Pound sterling fell to a two-month low after Bank of England Governor said the central bank would not be raising interest rates anytime soon due to uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

MSCI said it will add 222 China A Large Cap stocks in a phased manner beginning next year.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended marginally in the red after trading in a narrow range. Sensex settled at 31297, down 14 points while Nifty lost 4 points to finish at 9653. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however managed to gain 0.2% each. BSE IT and Consumer Durable indices gained 1% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices. Utilities, Finance and Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services indices were the top losers, down 0.3% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 313 cr and 480 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 321 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 477 cr.

Rupee depreciated 7 paise to end at 64.49/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a 0.3% higher Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.2%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 40 points lower start for our market.

After Nifty crossed the immediate hurdle of 9650, we had said that 9710, the top made on 6th June, is the immediate target above which 9850 would be the next target to eye.

Nifty, after touching a high of 9676, closed at 9653 yesterday and is set to open around 9610 today.

9610 is the immediate support on the hourly as well as daily chart, below which 9560, the bottom made last week, would be the next support to eye.


9710 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

NIFTY TAKES OUT 9650 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9610

NIFTY TAKES OUT 9650 HURDLE; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9610

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices soared 0.7%-1.4% with Dow and S & P 500 closing at record high. Nasdaq gained the most among 3 as technology stocks recovered from last week's sell-off. 

Also lifting investor sentiment were the results from the French parliamentary election, which ended with Emmanuel Macron's party clinching a majority.

New York Fed President William Dudley said inflation should rise as the labor market improved, which would allow the Federal Reserve to proceed with plans to tighten monetary policy.

Treasury yields erased earlier losses following Dudley's statement, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing to 2.19%. Dollar index gained about a third of a percent to 97.45.

WTI crude fell 1.2% to $44.20 per barrel, marking a fresh seven month low. Brent lost 40 cents to $46.97.

European markets gained 0.4%-1.1%, shrugging off two terror attacks in London and Paris. Brexit negotiations began yesterday between the U.K. and the European Union, with the U.K.'s Brexit Secretary saying he hoped for a "strong and special partnership."

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty soared 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, rising the most since 26th May. Sensex added 255 points to settle at 31312 while Nifty finished at 9658, up 70 points. Broader market however underperformed with BSE mid-cap index up just 0.1% and small-cap index down 0.1%.  BSE Metal index and Bankex were the top gainers among the sectoral indices, rising 1.9% and 1% respectively. Healthcare and Realty indices were the top losers, down 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 250 cr and 937 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 145 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 530 cr.

Rupee appreciated 1 paise to end at 64.42/$.

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh yesterday announced total waiver of crop loans up to Rs 2 lakh of small and marginal farmers, and a flat Rs 2 lakh relief for all marginal farmers, irrespective of the loan amount.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Nikkei is up more than a percent on yen weakness, other Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.4% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points higher start for our market.

Nifty yesterday touched a high of 9673 before closing at 9658, taking out the immediate hurdle of 9650. 9710, the top made on 6th June, is the immediate target on the way up above which 9850 would be the next target.


Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed around 9610, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, June 19, 2017

9510 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 9650, 9710 UPSIDE HURDLES

9510 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 9650, 9710 UPSIDE HURDLES

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally in the green but Nasdaq lost 0.2% on Friday on the back of mixed economic data and after Amazon announced it was buying Whole Foods. Dow closed at fresh record high

Housing starts and consumer sentiment figures both missed expectations.

Shares of Wal-Mart and other big retail and grocery companies fell sharply after Amazon announced it was buying Whole Foods for $13.7 billion. Amazon itself gained 2.4%.

European markets gained 0.4%-0.9%.

The International Monetary Fund agreed to join the Greek bailout program with a standby arrangement of less than $2 billion. However, it will not disburse the money until the euro zone details debt relief measures, which is not expected until next year. Meanwhile, to keep the Greek economy afloat, creditors agreed to disburse $9.5 billion that will allow Athens to complete payments next month. As a result, Greek 10-year bond yields fell to lowest level in nearly a month.

Earlier the Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy unchanged. Russia's central bank announced a 25-basis points cut in a key interest rate to 9% as inflation in the economy nears its target.

For the week, US indices ended mixed with Dow up half a percent, S & P 500 up 0.1% and 0.9% lower Nasdaq. Main European markets lost between 0.5% to 0.8%. Asian markets fell 0.4%-1.6%.

French President Emmanuel Macron's party won a parliamentary majority at the weekend.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after a rangebound but choppy trading session. Sensex settled at 31056, down 19 points while Nifty added 10 points to finish at 9588. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.17% and 0.14% respectively. BSE Healthcare and IT indices tumbled 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, becoming top losers among the sectoral indices while FMCG index and Bankex were the top gainers, up 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futrues worth Rs 764 cr, 276 cr and 500 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 891 cr.

Rupee appreciated 11 paise to end at 64.43/$.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 0.6% and 0.8% respectively.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council yesterday extended the deadline for filing the first set of returns. Giving respite to hospitality sector, council said 28% GST rate will now apply for room tariffs of above Rs 7,500 a night from the earlier threshold of Rs 5,000. Restaurants in five-star hotels will also be taxed at a GST rate of 18%, down from 28% earlier and identical to stand-alone air-conditioned restaurants. The council fixed two GST rates for lotteries—12% for government and 28% for government-authorised private draws.

OUTLOOK

Exports from Japan rose 14.9 percent on year compared to the 16.1 percent rise projected by a Reuters poll. Japan's trade balance, however, registered a deficit of 203.4 billion yen ($1.83 billion) compared to the 76 billion yen surplus expected.

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto 0.7% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 35 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty broke the immediate support of 9580, we had said that 34-DMA, placed around 9500, is the next important support to eye. We had also said that 9650 is the immediate hurdle above which 9710 would be the bigger resistance to eye.

Nifty last week touched a low of 9560 before closing at 9588 and is set to open higher today.

9650, where a trendline adjoining recent tops on the hourly chart is placed, continues to be immediate hurdle, above which, as mentioned above 9710, would be the bigger hurdle to eye.


34 DMA has now moved to 9510, and continues to be important support to eye.

Friday, June 16, 2017

NIFTY BREAKS 9580 SUPPORT; HEADED TO 34-DMA

NIFTY BREAKS 9580 SUPPORT; HEADED TO 34-DMA

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.1% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq tumbled half a percent as tech stocks resumed descent.

Media reports suggested that President Donald Trump is being investigated by a special counsel for possible obstruction of justice.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 237,000. The Philadelphia Fed business index hit 27.6 in June, while the Empire State manufacturing survey reached 19.8. Retail sales, as against an expectation of a 0.1% gain, fell 0.3% in May, marking the largest one-month decline since January of last year.

Dollar index rose nearly half a percent to 97.45.

WTI crude fell 27 cents to $44.46 and Brent settled 8 cents lower at $46.92 a barrel.

European markets fell 0.5%-0.9%. Back in Europe, the Bank of England left rates at 0.25% and bond purchases at £435 billion, as was widely expected. U.K. retail sales fell 1.2% last month.

AT HOME

Sensex and Nifty saw a sustained downward move through the session to end lower by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Sensex lost 80 points to settle at 31076, it's lowest close since 26th May and Nifty fell 40 points to finish at 9578, the lowest since 25th May. BSE mid-cap index fell 0.1% but the small-cap index gained 0.4%. BSE Oil & Gas index was the top loser among the setoral indices, down 1.2%, followed by 0.9% each cut in IT and Teck indices. Realty index soared 2.2%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.9% higher Healthcare index.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futuers worth Rs 645 cr, 578 cr and 1007 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 855 cr.

Rupee depreciated 24 paise to end at 64.54/$.

India's trade deficit in May hit a 30-month high of USD 13.84 bn, up from USD 10.44 bn in April, as imports soared 33% y-o-y to $37.8 bn while exports rose 8.3% to USD 24 bn.

Petrol price was cut by Rs 1.12 per litre and diesel by Rs 1.24 per litre, the last of the fortnightly revisions after which daily correction in rates in step with cost will be implemented.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with gains of 0.3%-0.5% and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Nifty yesterday touched a low of 9560 and closed at 9578, breaking the immediate support placed at 9590-9580. Next support, as we have been mentioning, will come around 34-DMA, which is now placed around 9500.


9650 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart above which 9710 would be the next hurdle.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

9500 BELOW 9580; 9710 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

9500 BELOW 9580; 9710 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

While Dow gained 0.2%, S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.4% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time this year, as was widely expected.

Fed kept it's rate forecast unchanged and also provided more details on how it plans to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. However, the Fed now sees inflation falling short of expectations for the year.

U.S. Treasuries held higher after the Fed's announcement, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding to 2.145%. Dollar index, after falling to 96.32, rebounded to close at 96.95.

Consumer price index fell 0.1% in May, as aginst expectation of a 0.2% rise. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator, came in at a weaker 1.5%, well below the Fed's 2% inflation target.

WTI crude plunged 3.7% to touch a seven-month low after data showed surprise build in U.S. gasoline stocks

European markets, except a 0.3% higher DAX, fell 0.4%-0.1%.

AT HOME

After falling about three tenth of a percent, benchmark recouped all the losses and some more in the noon trade to end marginally higher. Sensex settled at 31156, up 52 points while Nifty added 11 points to finish at 9618. BSE mid-cap index ended flat while small-cap index added half a percent. BSE Energy and Realty indices climbed 1.5% each, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Metal and FMCG indices were the top losers, down 0.7% each.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 161 cr and 310 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 150 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 72 cr.

Rupee appreciated 4 paise to end at 64.29/$.

India's wholesale inflation sharply slowed to 2.17% during May from 3.85% in April.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, except a marginally higher Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with cuts of 0.6%-1% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 points lower start for our market.

As we have been mentioning, Nifty is in a consolidation mode after achieving 9700-9725 target and 9580-9590 is the immediate support area.

Nifty, after touching a low of 9580, rebounded to close at 9618, but a gap down opening would take it back to the 9580 support. 9580, which now also coincides with 20-DMA, is the immediate support, upon breach of which 34-DMA, placed around 9500, would be the next important support.


9710 continues to be immediate hurdle above which 9840 would be the next upside target to eye.