Friday, April 28, 2017

NIFTY CONSOLIDATED AFTER ACHIEVING 9350 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9250

NIFTY CONSOLIDATED AFTER ACHIEVING 9350 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9250

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 ended marginally higher while Nasdaq gained 0.4% to close at record high.

Energy stocks were under pressure as US crude fell 1.3% to $48.97, it's lowest since March 29, on oversupply concerns.

Durable goods orders rose a less-than-expected 0.7% in March. Weekly jobless claims increased more than expected to 257,000. Pending home sales fell 0.8% in March.

The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged even as ECB President Draghi acknowledged the economy recovery taking place in the Euro zone. However he also said that net asset purchases at a new monthly pace of 60 billion euros (nearly $65.6 billion) would "run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary."

Following the decision, euro/dollar declined for a second consecutive session, trading at $1.0862.

European markets fell 0.2%-1.2%. Basic resources were the worst performers as commodity prices edged lower and Chinese iron ore futures slipped for a third session out of four.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended with modest cut after a choppy trade on the expiry day of the Aril derivative series to break the three-day winning streak. Sensex lost 104 points to settle at 30030 while Nifty finished at 9342, down 10 points. BSE mid-cap index gained 0.1% while small-cap index was down 0.02%. BSE Metal index fell 1%, becoming top loser among sectoral indices, followed by 0.7% cut in FMCG and Healthcare indices. Realty and IT indices were the top gainers, up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and stock futures worth Rs 182 cr and 794 cr respectively but net bought index futures worth Rs 587 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 233 cr.

Rupee depreciated 4 paise to end at 64.15/$.

For the April derivative series, Sensex and Nifty gained 1.3% and 1.8% respectively.

Maruti reported better-than-expected topline while bottomline and operational performance matched estimates. Net profit grew 15.8% y-o-y to Rs 1709 cr. Revenue rose 20.4% to Rs 20751 cr. Operating profit rose 9.9% to Rs 2561 cr and margin contracted by 140 bps to 14.2%.

Kotak Mahindra Bank reported better-than-expected earnings but asset quality weakened. Kotak Mahindra Bank reported 40.3% y-o-y increase in net profit at Rs 976.5 cr. NII rose 16.4% to Rs 2161 cr. Net interest margin expanded to 4.6% from 4.49% q-o-q. Gross NPA ratio rose 17 bps q-o-q to 2.59% and net NPA ratio rose 19 bps to 1.26%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally higher start for our market.

Nifty, after achieving the 9350 target on Wednesday, saw a volatile consolidation on the expiry day of the April derivative series yesterday.

9470 is the next upside target to eye. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9250, with the stop-loss of which existing longs can be held on to.


Ambuja Cement will report its quarterly earnings today.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9350 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9210

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9350 TARGET; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 9210

WORLD MARKETS                             

After trading in green for better part of the day, US indices slipped in last hour or so to end flat to marginally lower after digesting Trump's highly-anticipated tax reform plans.

The plan proposed a cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% and also said that there will be a "one-time tax" on the trillions of dollars held by corporations overseas. However, the plan left market with questions on whether the changes would increase the budget deficit.

PepsiCo, United Technologies, Procter & Gamble and Twitter all posted a better-than-expected profit.

WTI) fell 0.52 percent to trade at $49.36 a barrel while Brent crude futures fell 0.37 cents to trade at $51.63

European markets ended with modest gains.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices, after heightened volatility in the late noon trade, managed to end higher by half a percent, with both Nifty and Sensex closing at record high and Sensex closing above 30000 mark for the first time ever. Sensex soared 190 points to settle at 30133 while Nifty finished at 9352, up 45 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however ended with cuts of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. BSE FMCG and Auto indices gained 2% and 1% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Realty index plunged 3%, becoming top loser, followed by 1.1% cut in Energy and IT indices.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 493 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 241 cr and 1382 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1011 cr.

Rupee appreciated 18 paise to end at 64.38/$.

Axis Bank fourth quarter net profit fell 43% y-o-y to Rs 1225 cr but surpassed street expectations due to higher-than-expected NII, other income and strong recoveries. NII rose 4% to Rs 4729 cr. Advances increased 10% to Rs 3.73 lakh cr. Net interest margin improved to 3.83% from 3.43% q-o-q. Gross NPA ratio improved 18 bpas to 5.04% and net NPA ratio fell 7 bps to 2.11%. Additions to gross NPA (gross slippages) were Rs 4811 cr against Rs 4560 in previous quarter whiel net slippages stood at Rs 2008 cr.

SEBI yesterday approved introduction of options trading in the commodities market and also approved proposals to grant unified licence to the commodity and equity brokers and regulations for monitoring funds up to Rs 500 crore raised via initial public offerings.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

Readers would recall that we had given targets of 9273 followed by 9350 after Nifty took out immediate hurdle of 9200. The benchmark yesterday soared to 9367 before closing at 9352, achieving the 9350 target and vindicating our view.

Next level to eye on the upside is around 9470. Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9210, with the stop-loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

Maruti, Kotak Bank TVS Motor and Biocon will report their quarterly earnings today.


In the US Trump will be outlining his tax reform vision ahead of a potential government shutdown. Government funding will end Friday unless Congress can agree on at least a temporary funding resolution.

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9273 TARGET, 9350 NEXT

NIFTY ACHIEVES 9273 TARGET, 9350 NEXT

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices climbed 0.6%-1.1% on the back of strong earnings announcements and on expectations for U.S. President Donald Trump's impending tax reforms. Nasdaq crossed the 6000 mark for the first time ever.

McDonald's and Caterpillar climbed after reporting solid earnings and contributed the most in Dow.

The national home price index jumped 5.8% in February more than the expected 5.7% rise. New home sales rose 5.8% to 621,000 in March, above expectations. Consumer confidence held at 120.3 for April.

WTI crude gained 33 cents or 0.7% to $49.56, snapping a six-day losing streak. Brent gained a percent to $52.15.

Dollar index fell about 0.3% to 98.72, marking a five-month low.

European markets gained upto 0.6%.  French business showed no signs of concern over the ongoing presidential race with sentiment stable at 104 in April.

AT HOME

Repeating Monday's big upmove, benchmark indices climbed a percent today with Nifty hitting a fresh record high. Sensex soared 287 points to settle at 29943 while Nifty finished at 9307, up 89 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices added 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices closed higher with Telecom and Realty indices leading the tally, up 2.6% and 1.3% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 179 cr and 1806 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 805 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 998 cr.

Rupee appreciated 18 paise to end at 64.26/$.

Wipro reported better-than-expected earnings but Q1 guidance disappointed. IT services revenue rose 2.7% q-o-q to USD 1955 mn. Rupee revenue rose 1.6% to Rs 13402 cr and consolidated profit grew by 7.2% to Rs 2267 cr. The company guided for sequential revenue growth of negative 2% to 0% for Q1FY18. The company declared 1:1 bonus.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

After Nifty took out the immediate hurdle of 9200, we had said that 9273, the top made in early April, is the immediate target above which 9350 would be the next target to eye.

Nifty yesterday soared to 9309 before closing at 9307, achieving the 9273 target and moving towards 9350.

9350 continues to be the immediate target above which 9470 would be the next level to gun for.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 9170, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.


Axis Bank will report its quarterly earnings today.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 9273 TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9140

NIFTY ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 9273 TARGET; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP-LOSS OF 9140

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices climbed 1%-1.2%, cheering the results of the first round in the French presidential election.

Media report suggested that Trump ordered aides to put together a tax plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%.

Focus now shits to potential government shutdown. US Government funding will end Friday unless Congress can agree on at least a temporary funding resolution.

Developments on the Korean Peninsula will also be watched as the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier-led battle group heads to the Sea of Japan. China called for restraint in dealing with North Korea when Chinese President spoke with Trump over the phone yesterday.

European markets soared 2.1%-4.8% with CAC leading the tally and hitting a nine-year high. Germany's Ifo business sentiment index jumped to 112.9 in April from 112.4 in March. This was the highest reading since July 2011.

AT HOME

After a mildly positive start, benchmark indices kept on moving higher through the session to end with hefty gains of a percent. Sensex soared 291 points to settle at 29656 while Nifty finished at 9218, up 99 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1% and 0.8% respectively. Except a 0.4% lower Healthcare index, all the BSE sectoral indices closed in green with Realty and Basic Material indices leading the tally, up 3% and 2.1% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 280 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 403 cr and 1204 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 984 cr.

Rupee appreciated 18 paise to end at 64.46/$.

Ultratech Cement reported 12% dip in fourth quarter net profit at Rs 688 cr. Income was up 3% at Rs 7499 cr. Grey cement volume rose 0.2% while white cement volume was up 0.5%. Results were ahead of estimates on all counts.

Reliance Industries' quarterly earnings beat expectations as standalone net profit grew 1.6% q-o-q to Rs 8151 cr. Standalone revenue revenue rose 12% to Rs 74598 cr and consolidated revenue was up 10.3% at Rs 92889 cr. Gross refining margin stood at USD 11.50 a barrel, up from 10.8 in December quarter. Operating profit rose 6.4% to Rs 11280 cr. The company also said that Reliance Jio has added 109 million subscribers out of which 72 mn are Jio Prime subscribers.

Indiabulls Housing’s net profit rose 24% y-o-y to Rs 840 cr. NII climbed 21.8% to Rs 1360 cr.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Asian markets are trading with gains of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating we have been telling that the 34-DMA is the important immediate support with the stop-loss of which positional longs should be held on to. In yesterday's report we had also said that 9200 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, above which, 9273, the top made in early April, would be the next target.

Nifty, after taking support at the 34-DMA mark last week, crossed the 9200 hurdle yesterday and touched a high of 9225 before closing at 9218.

9273 continues to be immediate target above which 9350 would be the next target to eye.


Immediate support on the hourly chart is placed at 9140, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

Monday, April 24, 2017

9075 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 9200 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

9075 IS THE IMPORTANT SUPPORT; 9200 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.1%-0.3% on Friday, digesting falling oil prices and comments from the Trump administration on tax reform and ahead of key French election.

Trump said his administration will unveil a "massive tax cut" in a new reform, though the timing of that package was unclear.

Energy stocks were under pressure as WTI crude fell 2.2% to $49.62 per barrel.

Uncertainty around the French election has grown over the past month after far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon's surprising surge in the polls. Concerns over a victory from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen rose after a shooting in Paris. Le Pen has said repeatedly that, if she wins, she'd pull France out of the European Union and the euro zone.

In Europe, except a 0.2% higher DAX, other markets fell 0.1%-0.5%. The yield on the French 10-year bond bounced back from a three-month low to trade around 0.93 percent. Flash euro zone composite PMI came in at 56.7 in April, up from 56.4 in March.

For the week, US indices gained 0.5%-1.8%. In Europe, FTSE plunged 2.9% while CAC and DAX fell 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. In Asian Shanghai nosedived 3.1%, Hang Seng fell 0.9% but Nikkei gained 1%.

Geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula continued to ramp up over the weekend as Pyongyang indicated that it was prepared to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier to showcase its military prowess.

AT HOME

After opening with gains of about half a percent, benchmark indices nosedived seven tenth of a percent from the top of the day in noon trade to end lower by a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 29365, down 57 points while Nifty lost 17 points to finish at 9119. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however managed to end higher by 0.02% and 0.25% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 2.4%, becoming top gainer among sectoral indices, followed by 0.8% rise in Telecom and Energy indices. FMCG and Healthcare indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 978 cr, 1238 cr and 91 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1132 cr.

Rupee depreciated 3 paise to end at 64.6375/$.

HDFC Bank reported stable set of earnings. Net profit rose 18.2% to Rs 3990 cr despite a 90.5% y-o-y and 76% q-o-q rise in provisions at Rs 1262 cr.  NII grew 21.5% to Rs 9055. Loan growth stood at 19.4%. Gross NPA ratio remained unchanged sequentially at 1.05% while net NPA ratio rose 1 bps to 0.33%.

ACC reported 9% fall in quarterly profit at Rs 211 cr but sales rose 9% to Rs 3557 cr. Operating profit fell 5.7% to Rs 417 cr and margin contracted by 180 bps to 11.5%.Sales volume rose 3.8% to 6.6 million tonnes, growing for the first time after 3 quarters. Results were better than market expectation.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty lost 0.3% each, extending the losing streak to second straight week.

OUTLOOK

Early results from the French election showed Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advancing to a presidential runoff on May 7, avoiding the worst case outcome of a run-off between Le Pen and far-left Mélenchon. 

Owing to this, Euro jumped to a five-and-a-half month high of around $1.0935 against the dollar. US futures are up about 0.8%.

In Asia, Nikkei is up more than a percent but Shanghai is down nearly a percent. Other Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points higher start for our market.

For past many sessions, we have been mentioning that the 34-DMA, which was placed around 9080, was the important immediate support to eye. The benchmark tested this support last week by touching a low of 9075 on Wednesday and finished the week at 9119.

9075 continues to be important immediate support, a decisive breach of which would be negative for the short term trend. 9020-8970 would be the next support area if that happens.

9200 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart above which 9274, the top made early April, would be the next target to eye. 


Reliance Industries, Ultratech Cement and Indiabulls Housing will report their quarterly earnings today. Reliance will report its quarterly earnings after market hours. While net profit might slip marginally to Rs 8000 cr from previous quarter’s Rs 8022 cr on account of lower other income, operational performance is expected to be better. GRM’s might move up to $11 per barrel from 10.8. Details on Jio will be the focus area.

Friday, April 21, 2017

NIFTY REBOUNDS AFTER TESTING 34-DMA SUPPORT; 9218 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY REBOUNDS AFTER TESTING 34-DMA SUPPORT; 9218 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices soared 0.8%-0.9% after treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the administration was close to "major tax reform."

American Express reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings while Verizon, another Dow member, missed the mark on both earnings and revenue.

Steel stocks soared after Trump said he directed the Commerce Department to prioritize a probe on foreign steel products' effect on U.S. national security.

Initial jobless claims rose to 244,000, topping expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed business index fell to 22 in April from 32.8 in March. Leading indicators rose more than expected in March.

WTI crude fell 17 cents to $50.27 per barrel.

European markets, barring a 1.5% higher CAC, ended marginally higher. Opinion polls show that the race to elect the next French president is too close to call with both leading candidates losing momentum ahead of Sunday's first-round vote.

In a suspected terrorist incident, one policeman was killed and two were injured after a gunman opened fire in central Paris on Thursday night.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended higher by about a third of a percent after a choppy session, with Nifty breaking the 5-day losing streak. Sensex added 86 points to settle at 29422 while Nifty finished at 9136, up 33 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. BSE Realty and Basic Material indices added 2.1% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex and Energy indices fell 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 169 cr, 239 cr and 478 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 9 cr.

Rupee appreciated 2 paise to end at 64.6125/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets, except a modestly lower Shanghai, are up 0.4%-0.8% and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, we had been working with the downside target of 34-DMA placed around 9080 after immediate support of 9160 was breached. Nifty touched a low of 9075, testing above mentioned level, on Wednesday and rebounded yesterday to end at 9136.

9080 continues to be immediate important support to eye below which 9000-8950 would be the next support area. 9218, the top made this week, continues to be immediate hurdle.


HDFC Bank and ACC will report their quarterly earnings today.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

NIFTY HOLDS 34-DMA SUPPORT; 9218 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

NIFTY HOLDS 34-DMA SUPPORT; 9218 IS THE IMMEDIATE HURDLE

WORLD MARKETS                             

Dow and S & P 500 fell 0.6% and 0.2% respectively while Nasdaq managed to end 0.2% higher.

IBM fell 5% and was the biggest drag on the index. The company posted mixed quarterly results as earnings beat but sales fell for the 20th straight quarter on a year-over-year basis.

Energy was the biggest sectoral loser as US oil nosedived 3.8% to$50.44 per barrel after a build in U.S. gasoline inventories and an increase in U.S. crude production. On the flip side, financials traded higher after Morgan Stanley posted a strong first-quarter.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed economic activity increased across all 12 districts.

European markets, except half a percent lower FTSE, gained 0.1%-2% with Italy on the top. Sterling surged to a more than six-month high on expectations that early election in UK could lead to a more market-friendly exit from the EU. Eurozone March inflation stood at 1.5%, down from 2% in Feb.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended little changed after trading in a narrow range through the day. Sensex settled at 29337, up 17 points while Nifty lost 2 points to finish at 9103. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. BSE Utilities and Realty indices climbed 2.1% and 1.5% respectively, becoming top gainers among the sectoral indices while Bankex and IT indices were the top losers, down 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 673 cr and 1027 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 269 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 526 cr.

Rupee appreciated 4 paise to end at 64.6350/$.

IndusInd Bank's fourth quarter profit missed estimates due to sharp jump in provisions despite stable asset quality while net interest income was ahead of expectations. Profit grew 21.2% y-o-y to Rs 752 cr. NII soared 31.5% to Rs 1667 cr with loan growth at 28%. Gross NPAs as a percentage of gross advances declined 1 bps q-o-q to 0.93% and net NPA was unchanged at 0.39%.

Yes Bank reported 30% rise in March quarter net profit at Rs 914 cr. NII rose 32% to Rs 1640 cr. Net interest margin expanded to 3.6% from 3.5% q-o-q. Gross NPA ratio worsened to 1.52% from 0.85% and Net NPA ratio rose to 0.81% from 0.29%. Gross slippages stood at Rs 1905 cr as against cumulative figure of Rs 728 for previous three quarters.

OUTLOOK

Japan reported that March exports rose 12% on year, against an expected 6.7% increase. This is the fourth consecutive month of gains for Japanese exports.

Today morning, except a 0.2% lower Shanghai, other Asian markets are trading with SGX Nifty is suggesting a marginally lower start for our market.

Readers would recall that after Nifty broke the immediate support of 9160, we had been working with the downside target of 34-DMA, which was placed around 9080 yesterday.

The benchmark touched a low of 9075 before closing at 9103, achieving this target.

9080 continues to be immediate support, below which 9020, where double bottom made in late March is placed, would be the next downside target.


9218, the top made on Tuesday, is the immediate hurdle to eye.