Wednesday, July 9, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 09.07.2014

NIFTY NOSEDIVES AFTER ACHIEVING 7800 TARGET

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 lost 0.7% each while Nasdaq plunged 1.4% yesterday, extending the losing streak to second day, as investors braced for quarterly earnings.

Increased tension in the Middle East was also in focus as media reports suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was weighing a ground operation in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 5 basis points to 2.562 percent, while the dollar turned lower against other major currencies.

European markets, dragged down by banking stocks, plunged between 1.2%-2.7% amid reports that more lenders had begun settlement talks with U.S. authorities.

Earlier in the day, data revealed that U.K. industrial output fell 0.7% month-on-month in May, below forecasts of a 0.2% rise. It comes after weak industrial production data for Germany on Monday, which stoked fears of a slowdown in Europe's largest economy.

AT HOME

After gaining about a fourth of a percent in the initial trade, benchmark indices saw a sharp sell-off later in the day to end with deep cuts of nearly 2%. Sensex nosedived 518 points to settle at 25582 while Nifty finished at 7623, down 164 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices tumbled 3.6% and 4.2% respectively. All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with Realty and Power indices leading the tally, giving away 7.2% and 6.4% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 423 cr and 267 cr respectively but net sold index futures worth Rs 550 cr. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 400 cr.

Rupee appreciated 23 paise to close at 59.78/$.

Railway Minister Sadanadn Gowda presented railway budget for 2014-15 in the Parliament yesterday. The key highlights were announcement of setting up logistics parks, FDI and PPP in all areas except railway operations, huge programme for terminal upgradation, high speed corridors and separate freight terminals and mechanism for monitoring the projects for the timely completion.

OUTLOOK

China's consumer price inflation for June has come in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in May and below the expected 2.4% mark. Producer price index dipped 1.1% y-o-y.

Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower start for our market.

Ever since Nifty broke out of the descending channel formation on 30th June, we were working with the target of 7800. We had also indicated in yesterday's report that immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 7700 which should serve as the trailed stop loss in trading longs. 

Yesterday, after touching a high of 7809 and thereby achieving 7800 target, Nifty reversed and plunged sharply to close at 7623.

With yesterday's fall, Nifty has broken the higher-top higher-bottom formation on the hourly chart and is likely to extend the decline. 34 DMA, placed around 7530 is the next meaningful support to eye.

Immediate resistance on the hourly chart is placed at 7730 with the stop loss of which trading shorts can be held on to.

Economic Survey for the the year 2013-14 would be tabled in the Parliament today.

Indusind Bank will report its quarterly earnings today.

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