NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AROUND 34-WMA HURDLE; MAY SPEECH IN FOCUS

NIFTY CONSOLIDATES AROUND 34-WMA HURDLE; MAY SPEECH IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS                             

US markets were shut yesterday on account of Martin Luther King Day.

European markets ended with cuts of 0.2%-1.4% ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May's speech on Brexit plans due today.

The British pound fell to three-month lows, following media reports that suggested May will announced a "clean" and "hard" Brexit, pulling the country from the European market and the European customs union, in exchange for the ability to control immigration laws and leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Euro zone exports rose in November, exceeding the number of imports by 25.9 billion euros ($27.6 billion).

AT HOME

After opening with cuts of about three tenth of a percent, benchmark indices saw a sustained northward journey through the session to end higher by about a fifth of a percent. Sensex settled at 27288, up 50 points while Nifty added 12 points to finish at 8413. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. BSE Realty index soared 1.6%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.03% rise in Finance index. IT and Teck indices were the top losers, down 1% and 0.8% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 347 cr, 119 cr and 200 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 203 cr.

Rupee appreciated 6 paise to end at 68.10/$.

India’s wholesale inflation rate grew 3.39% in December, marginally quicker than November’s 3.15%.

Reliance Industries reported 4.1% q-o-q rise in net profit at Rs 8022 cr, boosted by other income that grew sharply by 33% q-o-q to Rs 3025 cr. Revenue rose 3.5% to Rs 66606 cr. Gross refining margin stood at USD 10.80  barrel, up from 10.1 a barrel but were lower than the expected 11.50 mark.

IMF cut India's growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.6%from 7.6% earlier due to the "temporary negative consumption shock" of demonetisation.

GST is likely to be rolled out from July 1 as the Centre and states reached an agreement over the two thorny issues of "dual control" and taxing rights of goods moved through high seas.

Under the agreed model, all assesses with an annual turnover of Rs 1.5 crore or below will be split on a 90:10 ratio between the states and the Centre. States would assess 90% of businesses with an annual turnover Rs 1.5 crore, while the Centre will assess the remaining 10%. Businesses with a turnover of more than Rs 1.5 crore will be split equally with the states assessing 50% of such traders and the Centre the remaining 50%.

The issues agreed upon on Monday will now be incorporated in the draft IGST, CGST and SGST laws. Once those drafts are approved by the council, respective legislative bodies (the Parliament and state Assemblies) will take these for approval.

OUTLOOK

Today morning, Hang Seng is flat, Nikkei and Shanghai are down about half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting a flattish start for our market.

As we have been mentioning, Nifty has achieved the 34-week moving average target placed around 8435 and a decisive crossover of this hurdle is required for a fresh upmove. 8560, the 61.8% retracement level of the 8970-7893 fall, would be the next target if that happens.

Meanwhile, 8300 continues to be immediate support on the hourly chart, with the stop-loss of which trading longs should be held on to.