9160 LANDS SUPPORT AGAIN

9160 LANDS SUPPORT AGAIN

WORLD MARKETS                             

US indices fell 0.3%-0.5% amidst rising geopolitical tensions and Trump's comment on dollar.

Dollar index fell half a percent to 100.23 after Trump told the Wall Street Journal he thought the currency was getting "too strong." The 2-year yield fell to around 1.21%, while the 10-year yield fell below the psychologically key 2.30% level. Gold gained $4 to $1276 an ounce.

In another media interaction, Trump said he wants to tackle health care reform before implementing new tax policy.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Moscow on yesterday and received a barrage of criticism from several Russian officials.

WTI crude settled half a percent lower at $53.11 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.17 million barrels.

European markets, except a 0.1% higher DAX, fell upto half a percent.

AT HOME

After falling about eight tenth of a percent in first hour or so, benchmark indices recouped nearly half of the losses through choppy session to end lower by about four tenth of a percent. Sensex settled at 29643, down 145 points while Nifty finished at 9203, down 34 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. BSE Utilities and Consumer Durable indices were the top losers among the sectoral indices, down 1.2% and 1% respectively while Realty and Healthcare indices gained 0.8% and 0.6% respectively.

FIIs net sold stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 581 cr, 435 cr and 105 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 701 cr.

Rupee depreciated 15 paise to end at 64.7750/$.

Budget Session of the Parliament ended today with Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha passing 23 and 18 bills respectively.

India’s industrial output contracted -1.2% in February from 2.7% in January and 2% in February last year, dashing hopes amidst faltering economic activity. January IIP however was revised upwards.

Retail inflation rate rose to 3.81% in March from February's 3.65%.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Nikkei, owing to stronger Yen, is down more than a percent. Other Asian markets are trading with cuts of upto half a percent and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 30 point lower start for our market.

At the risk of repeating, over past couple of days, we have been saying that 9160 is the immediate support, with the stop-loss of which trading longs can be held on to.

Yesterday, Nifty, after touching a low of 9162, rebounded to close at 9203 but is again set to open around 9160 today.

9160, where 20-DMA as well as a trendline adjoining recent bottoms on daily chart is placed, continues to be immediate support to eye. Below 9160, 34-DMA, placed around 9070, would be the important support to eye.

9274, the top made last week, continues to be immediate hurdle.

Infosys will kickstart January-March quarter earning season today. The company is expected to report a 1.3% q-o-q dollar revenue growth at USD 2584 mn. Rupee revenue is likely to fall 0.2% to Rs 17235 cr and profit might dip 3.7% to Rs 3570 cr. Operating margin is seen down 30 bps at 24.8%.

More important will be FY18 guidance where constant currency revenue growth of 7-9% is expected. Any revision to current margin guidance of 24-26% will also be watched. Commentary on buyback will also be in focus.